Nuclear Risk Watch

Executive Briefing

Generated 2026-09-12 06:11 UTC

As of 2026-09-12 06:11 UTC, 1 of 294 monitored civil nuclear facilities are at ELEVATED external exposure or higher. The most significant is Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (HIGH, 69.2/100), driven by Conflict 0 km away (4 h ago). The most common active hazard near monitored sites is Wildfire (4 of 7 events in range of a site in the last 7 days).

294

Facilities monitored

At elevated+ exposure

Hazards in range of sites (7d)

Exposure distribution

SEVERE (80–100): 0HIGH (60–80): 1ELEVATED (40–60): 0MODERATE (20–40): 0LOW (0–20): 293

Sites at elevated external exposure

These sites show elevated external hazard exposure. No operational effect on any facility has been confirmed in the public sources reviewed.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant · Ukraine

HIGH · 69.2

Conflict 0 km from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, 4 h ago (severity 65%, distance factor 1.00, recency 0.99) plus 1 other active hazard → exposure HIGH (69.2/100).

Conflict · 0 km · 4 h ago · sev 65%Wildfire · 38 km · 2 d ago · sev 42%

Active hazards in range of monitored sites (7d)

Hazard type	Events near sites
Wildfire	4
Earthquake	2
Conflict	1
Total	7

How external hazard exposure is evaluated

Each facility is scored 0–100 from four interpretable factors, multiplied together — so every score has a clear, stated reason:

Hazard type — how threatening that class of hazard is to a nuclear site.
Severity — normalised intensity (e.g. earthquake magnitude, fire radiative power).
Proximity — influence falls away with distance from the site.
Recency — influence decays over time, with longer persistence for sustained threats such as conflict.

LOW 0–20MODERATE 20–40ELEVATED 40–60HIGH 60–80SEVERE 80–100

This measures hazard exposure only. It does not incorporate facility vulnerability, likely consequences or engineering safety, and does not predict a nuclear incident. Full method and limitations: nuclearwatch.evodefence.uk/methodology